3.1 Indian Energy Structure: Limited coal -rich oil, poor oil, and limited development of nuclear energy and water conservancy
We believe that India’s energy structure is mainly characterized by coal -rich oil and oil, which is very similar to India.According to the "BP World Energy Statistics Yearbook 2023", as of the end of 2020, Indian coal proven reserves reached 111 billion tons, of which smoke -free coal, tobacco coal and sub -cigarette coal, and lignite were 105.9 billion tons and 50.73 million tons, which accounted for a total of global10.30%of coal proven reserves, ranking fifth in the world, second only to the United States, Russia, Australia and India.Indian oil proven reserves are about 600 million tons, accounting for only 0.3%of global oil proven reserves; natural gas proven reserves are about 1.3 trillion cubic meters, accounting for only 0.7%of global natural gas proven reserves.
In other energy fields, nuclear energy has been insisting on refusing to sign the "Non -diffusion Nuclear Weer Treaty" for a long time and has been working hard to develop nuclear weapons. India has been in isolated in nuclear technology development and nuclear fuel trade for a long time. The use of nuclear energy is relatively slow.In terms of water conservancy, it is subject to environmental protection considerations and the relatively flat terrain terrain in India, and India’s hydropower development process is also slow.In terms of new energy, although the amount of new installations has increased rapidly in recent years, the proportion of the overall energy structure of India is still low. Coal is currently and may still be the pillar of Indian energy for a long time in the future.
3.2 Indian coal resources are rich in reserves, but the resource structure leads to scarcity of coking coal resources
3.2.1 The distribution of coal resources is more concentrated, and the location advantage is significant
According to the distribution of Indian coal mines on the official website of the Ministry of Coal Ministry, India’s coal resources are basically distributed in eastern and northeast India, near India, which is located on the northeast of the Degan Plateau and the Answers of Kolkata.Significant advantages.In terms of regions, Indian coal resources are mainly concentrated in Olsa, Jakkanda and Chadis Galbal.As of 2022, the reserves of coal resources evaluation in the above three regions reached 88.1 billion tons, 86.6 billion tons, and 74.1 billion tons, respectively, accounting for 24.38%, 23.98%and 20.53%of Indian coal resource assessment reserves, respectively, totaling nearly 70%in total, totaling nearly 70%.Essence
3.2.2 The depth of coal burial is mostly shallow and middle layer, and the difficulty of mining is low
From the perspective of burial depth, the current evaluation reserves of Indian coal are located within the range of 1200 meters underground.Among them, shallow coal reserves of 0-300 meters of burial depth of 0-300 meters account for about 55.01%of the total coal reserves, and the middle coal reserves of 300-600 meters of 300-600 meters account for about 35.99%of the total coal reserves.The reserves account for about 9.00%of the total coal reserves.Generally speaking, India’s over half of the coal reserves are distributed in the shallow layer. According to this, the relatively low difficulty in mining is a major advantage of Indian coal.
3.3 Highly state -owned monopoly operation, and the total coal production has increased rapidly
In recent years, benefiting from the highly concentrated nationalized monopoly business model of Indian coal and the coal production increase strategy of the Indian government, India’s coal production has increased rapidly and has become the third largest coal production country in the world.However, while the total amount is rapidly increasing, the production and development of different coal types are very different.India’s coking coal production has long faced dual problems with the slow growth of coking coal coal production growth and low output rate.
3.4 Consumption of coal consumption, coking coal placing a large supply and demand gapSimla Stock
With the rapid development of the Indian economy, driven by the major coal consumption industry departments such as electricity and steel, India’s high -speed growth has become the world’s second largest coal consumer.From the perspective of coal types, non -coking coal is not short, but coke coal is limited by resource endowment, and import dependence is large.Jaipur Stock
4 In the future, the Indian coal market outlook: The demand gap is gradually eased, but the main coke has a long -term dependence on import status. It may change the global coking coal market patternIndore Stock
We believe that India’s coking coal resource endowment restrictions, especially high -quality main coke coal resources are scarce, and will continue to maintain an import dependence of more than 80縛 the rapid development of the steel industry in the future.We believe that with the continuous expansion of the demand for coking coal imported from India, the increase in Australian production capacity of the supply side, especially the current largest exporting country, may be lower than market expectations. In the face of increasingly supply, it is possible to drive the price center of the international coking coal to continue to rise, which may have a profound impact on my country’s coking coal market.
4.1 Added production capacity to increase, and it is expected that the total coal production in 2030 will exceed 150 million tons
We believe that the rapid development of India’s economy and downstream real estate, infrastructure and other industries, and the release of domestic coal production capacity in India is difficult to meet the needs of high -speed growth, and imports accounted for more than 20%before 2023.
4.2 It is expected that the self -sufficiency rate of coke coal is expected, but the main focus import depends on the status quo is difficult to change, or the global coking coal market pattern is changed
4.2.1 Indian Iron and Steel’s new production capacity in the future is mainly blast furnaces, and continues to increase the demand for coking coal, especially the main focus
Unlike India’s main steel-steel steelmaking, Indian electric furnace accounts for 55%, and blast furnace-transfer furnace accounts for only 45%.According to the production of raw iron and crude steel in India in 2022, the iron steel ratio is 64%, which means that the remaining 36%of the crude steel is directly restored by short -process scrap steel.However, with the rapid development of the Indian economy, it is difficult to meet the growing needs of India or relying on imported scrap steelKanpur Wealth Management. At the same time, the cost and scale of the blast furnace is significant.It is a long-process item of a blast furnace-turning furnace (iron ore and coke and other raw materials are smelted into raw iron (iron-making steps), and then made of crude steel through equipment such as turntables).According to the Indian Ministry of Iron and Steel, the Indian government plans to increase the production capacity of steel to 300 million tons/year by 2030, of which 180 million tons/year of steel refining capacity of blast furnaces will be doubled, and the blast furnace accounts for the current total production capacity.
According to our calculations, according to the estimation of about 0.7 tons of coking coal required by each ton of crude steel in India, combined with the 2030-2031 rough steel output mentioned in the "National Steel Policy 2017" released by the Indian Steel Department, the crude steel output reached 255 million tonsThe long-view goal is estimated that the demand for coking coal-reinforcement in fiscal 2030-2031 will reach about 170 million tons.According to the Indian Coal Ministry in May 2022, India’s coal supply and demand long-view forecast, Indian coking coal demand will reach approximately 150 million tons in the 2029-2030 fiscal year.
In accordance with the demand for total coking coal of India from 15-170 million, we are calculated by the proportion of 35%-40%of the primary coke. In 2030, India’s demand for the main focus will increase from about 30 million tons in 2023 to 0.53-068 billionTons, the demand is expected to double.
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"Fossil Energy-One of the Overseas Research Frameworks of Coal: Running India, stirring the International Coke Market-Guotai Junan [Huang Tao, Deng Yanqi] -20240217 [33 pages]"
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