Huaxia Times reporter Zhang Mei Chen Feng Beijing reported Beijing
A market value of $ 5 trillion has made the Mumbai Stock Exchange (BSE) the focus of global finance.
The Mumbai Stock Exchange is India’s largest stock exchange.The official Weibo of the Indian Embassy in China recently released news that the total market value of all listed stocks on the Mumbai Stock Exchange has reached US $ 5 trillion. At present, the Indian stock market has become the world’s fifth largest stock market.
The rise of the Indian stock market is formed by the joint promotion of multiple factors.Qu Fang, an investment consultant of Wanlian Securities, told the reporter of "Huaxia Times" that specifically, India’s economic growth has become a macro power to support the rise of the stock market in recent years.In the past ten years, India’s economy has maintained a high speed, and the labor population structure has been further improved. The service industry, mainly medical and semiconductors, has become a pillar industry, and high value -added products have become the main brand of India.In addition, overseas funds continued to inflow, and in 2023 alone, overseas funds had a net purchase amount of more than 20 billion US dollars in the Indian stock market. At the same time, India’s domestic assets also shown deposits to the stock market.
Grow up $ 1 trillion in half a year
It is worth noting that among the total market value of the US $ 5 trillion of the Mumbai Stock Exchange, $ 1 trillion has increased in less than 6 months recently.
Looking at the Indian stock market, since the low point in April 2003 began to rebound at 2904.44 points, the Indian stock market increased continued to expand, rising to the nearest high point of more than 7,6007 points, an increase of more than 26 times.
The same flower Shunian data shows that in the past 10 years, the Indian stock index has increased by more than 230%, which is far exceeding the stock market of other major economies in the same period.
"India, as a fast channel for global economic growth, has attracted more and more international investors. They are optimistic about India’s market potential and economic development prospects, which has also promoted the rise of the Indian stock market." The founder of the planet APP co -founder Yu XiSaid to the China Times reporter.
Since the beginning of 2020, the bull market market has prompted retail investors to enter the market, and the rise of the Indian stock market has been supported by the continuous inflow of foreign capital.With the rapid promotion of international capital inflows and the rapid growth of small investors, the Indian stock market has skyrocketed.
From the perspective of major stock markets in various countries and regions, the lowest point at the time of the outbreak of the epidemic has so far, the US stock market, especially the S & P 500 index and the Nasdaq index, has reached 142%and 155%, respectively.
In Asia, the Japan 225 index also achieved steady growth, an increase of 137%.The Indian Nifty50 Index performed particularly outstanding, with an increase of 276%, becoming the best performance in all indexes.The South Korean KRX100 index and the weighted index of India have also achieved 75%and 134%increase respectively, which is similar to that of most global stock markets.
In terms of European stock markets, Germany’s DAX30, French CAC and British FTSE 100 index have achieved steady growth, an increase of 70%to 130%.Specifically, the German DAX30 increase was 126%, the French CAC increased by 130%, and the British FTSE 100 increased by 70%.In addition, the Russian MICEX10 index also achieved a 76%increase, which is similar to that of most global stock markets.
Stock funds have a net inflow of 38 consecutive months
Foreign investors’ favor for the Indian stock market is not only reflected in the enthusiasm of investing in stocks directly, but also in the enthusiasm of investing in Indian stock funds.
According to statistics, last year, overseas funds injected more than $ 14 billion in funds from local stocks in India. As of 2023, the Nifty Index rose by nearly 14%, and it has risen eight years.It invested 8.3 billion US dollars to Indian stock funds and set the highest record in the same period.
The rapid growth of the Indian economy has provided solid fundamental support for the stock market.In the recent fiscal year, India’s economy has increased by 7.2%, becoming one of the fastest growing major economies in the world.
At the same time, India’s demographic dividend also provides strong support for the prosperity of the stock market.India is the second largest country in the world, with a huge young population and an increasing middle class.The demand for consumption and investment has been increasing, providing a steady stream of motivation for the stock market.
In fact, from March 2021, Indian stock funds have had net inflow for the 38th consecutive month.Although the recent period of capital inflows has declined, the contribution of the monthly regular investment plan (SIP) has exceeded the 200 billion rupees, reaching a historical high in April to 203.71 billion rupees.Mumbai Stock Exchange
India is currently the second largest market in India in the MSCI emerging market index, with a weight of nearly 19%, much higher than 8.2%in 2018.
Market fluctuation before election
According to the latest data released by the Indian Common Fund Association (AMFI), the stock -type common fund in April attracted 189.17 billion rupees (about $ 228 million) funds.
However, compared with last month, this number decreased by 16%month -on -month, showing that investors have adjusted their investment strategies in the increase in market fluctuations and the cautious emotions before the Indian election election.
The increase in market fluctuations may be one of the main reasons for the decline in capital inflows.Under the effects of global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and domestic policy changes, the Indian stock market has recently performed unstable, which may lead to the enthusiasm of investors’ investment in stock -type common funds.
In addition, India’s upcoming election may also affect investors’ decisions.
It is reported that on May 20 this year, India voted the fifth stage of the national election.The voting involved 6 stitches and 49 seats.As an important financial and port city in India, Mumbai, the financial center, is one of the important constituencies of the election.The "Rama Temple" dispute is located in the place where Aytegia has attracted much attention for its religious disputes and is also a key constituency in the election.The "World’s First Population Province" North State is one of the most populous states in India. It has a population of more than 200 million.The overall election has an important impact
"Before the election, many investors may adopt a more cautious investment strategy to avoid potential risks brought by market fluctuations." Industry insiders said.
"Although the net inflow of funds of stock -type common funds in April has declined, in the long run, the Indian stock market is still attractive." A person in the industry told the "Huaxia Times" reporter.
The price -earnings ratio is close to 26 times
"Financial derivatives have helped the market value of the Indian stock market for a new high. But there are potential problems after the Indian stock market reached a new high." Qu Fang said that on the one hand, the Indian manufacturing industry is gradually empty (the development of the capital market often affects manufacturing manufacturingIndustry, because of limited manufacturing profits, funds prefer high -yield areas).In the past 10 years, India ’s manufacturing has fallen from 17%to 13%.In addition, the current price -earnings ratio of India’s stock market is nearly 26 times, which is much higher than the emerging development of the Indian family. There is a risk of valuation. Once the growth rate of listed companies in India or the outflow of funds will cause valuation to return.Essence
"In addition, India’s current economic structure is more similar to developed countries, which is often conducive to the growth of the stock market.Caused the economic backward and caused the stock market to fall.
Yu Xi: "The stock market rising reflects the optimistic expectations of investors in India’s economic growth. If the Indian economy can maintain stable growth and continue to provide high -quality company operations and good benefits, then the rise of the stock market will have a solid foundation."
"Although the Indian stock market shows a strong upward trend, we cannot ignore the risks." Yu Xi said that the rise of the Indian stock market may be exaggerated to a certain extent, which means that investors have a high emotional, but fundamental factors, but fundamental factorsIt may not be so strong.Therefore, when participating in the Indian stock market, investors need to do well research and risk assessment.
"Corporate profit has become the main driving force." The Manager of the ICBC Credit Suisse Fund One Fund manager told the China Times reporter that in the short term, Bloomberg’s unanimous prediction data showed that the MSCI India index will enter a new round of profitability in 2024.In the middle and long term, according to OECD forecasts, the growth rate of India’s GDP in the next 5 years is above 6%, and it is at the forefront of global economy growth.In the context of the global global industrial chain, the Pan -Southern Asian economy represented by India has a relatively high -degree growth prospect.
In addition, the fund manager said that the improvement of risk appetite is expected to become auxiliary driving force.Absolutely speaking, India’s PETTM is currently at a historical high, and it seems that there seems to be pressure on the average return.But the premise of average return is often cyclical fluctuations, not trendy structural changes.India’s strong growth expectations+the potential positive spillover effect+(Modi is expected to be re -elected) under the game of the big country+the prospect of continuity of political maintenance can also lead to a relative valuation center rise.At the same time, positive structural trends such as the younger population structure of India will improve the expectations of Indian economic growth in the middle and long -term growth of the Indian economy.
The fund manager told reporters that the investment in India should be "watching while walking", tracking India’s macroeconomic performance and financial market performance in a timely manner.Chinese chives".
Editor in this issue: Sun Qi
Indore Stock
